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- Just some stuff that happened.
Just some stuff that happened.
Open Terms May 10–17, 2025
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Table of Contents
Our Week in the Market
Equities: Bulls are back! S&P 500 jumped ~5% (Nasdaq soared +7.2%), fueled by cooling inflation and a sudden US-China tariff timeout. S&P now green for the year (+1.3%)—barely, but still.
Bonds: Treasury yields calm, even after Moody’s dropped a Friday evening credit downgrade on the US. Market reaction? A bored shrug. (Too many margaritas by Friday afternoon?)
Commodities: Oil flatlined around mid-$60s; gold lost ~0.7% as investors ditched safe havens for stocks.
FX: Dollar climbed slightly, boosted by tariff easing hopes and higher import prices. Yen stabilized as Japan subtly hinted at currency protection.
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The Fall of Office Space
US office vacancy rates just hit a record 20%. Hybrid work continues haunting downtown real estate:
Landlords scrambling for lease renewals; banks quietly extending loans ($384 billion so far!) hoping for miracles.
"Extend and pretend" strategy hides huge potential losses.
Long-term economic drag possible as regional banks and cities feel the squeeze.
Translation: Empty cubicles might soon send market shockwaves—stay alert.
Tariffs on Timeout
US and China hit pause on their tariff tit-for-tat—for 90 days anyway:
Mutual tariff cuts fuel stock-market euphoria (especially tech).
CEOs cautiously optimistic; consumers still grumbling over past price hikes.
The truce feels conveniently timed (hello, election season), but don’t start printing "Trade War Is Over" T-shirts just yet.
Bottom line: Celebrate cautiously—the trade rollercoaster likely has a few more loops ahead.
Bad Medicine for Big Health
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock plunged 18% amid DOJ Medicare billing probe and sudden CEO departure:
Shares briefly cratered nearly 50% off April highs before a shaky recovery.
Investors reminded even "safe" mega-caps aren’t immune to scandal and volatility.
Lesson: Healthcare investors, pop a Tums—politics and fraud probes mean no sector is truly safe.
What to Look Forward To Next Week
May 19: China April Retail & Industrial Data (NBS)—indicator for emerging markets.
May 21: Retail earnings—Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW) test consumer resilience.
May 21: Fed May Meeting Minutes—clues on future rate moves.
May 22: UK April Inflation (ONS)—could shift Bank of England’s next move.
May 23: Flash PMIs (US, EU, UK)—economic pulse check heading into late Q2.
Stay alert for surprise geopolitical headlines—US-China trade, Ukraine developments, and pre-OPEC whispers.
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