BRICS to Riches

Open Terms – Week of May 17–24, 2025

May 24, 2025

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Table of Contents

  • Our Week in the Market

  • BRICS to Riches

  • Frenemies Reunited

  • Tariffs in Aisle 5

  • What to Look Forward To Next Week

Our Week in the Market

  • Stocks:

    • The S&P 500 approached a record high near 6,000, with investor optimism persisting despite looming debt downgrades and trade war tensions. Tech stocks and expectations of tax cuts have bolstered market confidence. $NASDAQ ( 0.0% )  $DOW ( ▼ 3.08% )  

  • Bonds:

    • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 5%, the highest since 2023, as Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA after 108 years. Inflation fears and government deficits are pressuring borrowing costs.

  • Commodities:

    • Oil recovered to around $65 after tariff-induced lows near $60. Gold settled around $3,240/oz, calming after recent volatility.

  • Dollar & Crypto:

    • The U.S. dollar weakened due to reduced global confidence following debt downgrade and trade tensions. Bitcoin reached a new high above $100K, benefiting from softer inflation and the weakened dollar.

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BRICS to Riches

Emerging markets (EM) stocks are quietly outperforming developed markets, driven by China's tech resurgence and Brazil’s commodity boom.

  • Bank of America identified EM as "the next bull market," highlighting weakening U.S. dollar, peaked U.S. bond yields, and China’s recovery as catalysts. Investors are notably underinvested in EM, potentially sparking a significant rotation.

Frenemies Reunited

The UK and EU quietly progressed toward closer cooperation through a new defense and trade agreement. Despite minimal market reaction (BAE Systems dropped ~1.3%), this agreement signals a subtle but significant geopolitical shift toward increased collaboration post-Brexit.

Tariffs in Aisle 5

U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Target, are increasingly passing tariff costs onto consumers. Tariffs initially targeting China are now acting as a hidden inflationary pressure, increasing consumer prices despite political assurances.

  • trump also proposed a 50% tariff on Europe and a 25% tariff on apple if they don’t make their phones in America.

What to Look Forward To Next Week

Tue, May 27:

US Durable Goods Orders (Apr): Insight into business spending strength.

US Consumer Confidence (May): Will consumer sentiment rebound?

Wed, May 28:

Salesforce (CRM) Earnings: Monitoring tech sector health and AI-driven growth outlook.

FOMC Minutes (Fed): Clues on Fed’s response to bond market volatility.

Thu, May 29:

US Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate): Clarifying economic contraction figures.

Fri, May 30:

US Personal Income & Outlays (Apr): Key inflation and consumer spending data.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment (May): Insight into European business and consumer confidence.

Stay alert for surprise geopolitical headlines—US-China trade, Ukraine developments, and pre-OPEC whispers.

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